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Old 06-17-2008, 09:54 PM
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Default Daily Analysis - 17/06/2008

Today’s US Dollar Trading
• USD retreats from Friday’s gain
• US data benign—points to more losses
• Speculation grows that USD will fall

Overnight Preview
• Look for the USD to consolidate
• Expect two-way action

Looking Ahead to Tuesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 8:30am USD Housing Starts
• 8:30am USD PPI m/m
• 8:30am USD Building Permits
• 8:30am USD Core PPI m/m
• 8:30am USD Current Account
• 9:15am USD Capacity Utilization Rate

The USD starts this week lower against most pairs but still two-sided as Monday draws to a close. In New York the USD saw the worst levels of the day so far as surging oil prices slammed equities and rallied the EURO. Oil prices slid off as volatility whipsawed energy prices taking the USD higher against the Swiss Franc and firming up against Yen but still unable to better the highs seen on Friday across the board. US forex trading data was benign as most reports came in lower than expected; TICS showed a decent cover but still not the whole picture as EURO remained firm near the 1.5500 handle all day. EURO rallied for a high print at 1.5520 early ahead of the London fix and keeping GBP up with it. Cable high during NY trade at 1.9690 with stops above the 1.9650 area driving the rate to the highs. Profit taking by longs dropped the rate back to the 1.9620/30 area into the close but EURO’s firmness into the end of the day suggest that both rates are poised for an additional leg higher overnight or during US trade tomorrow. If US data in the morning is again benign for the Greenback traders expect another leg lower for the USD during the day. USD/JPY remained above the 108.00 handle but under the 200 day MA making the technical picture better for the bears who argue a top is forming; USD/CHF also topping as the 1.0480 area again offers resistance all day to the USD. Highs at the 1.0523 level went unchallenged all day in NY suggesting that the Swissy is ready to drop back to below the 100 bar MA to start the week. Traders note that in all pairs the technical picture appears in focus near-term and expect dips to be bought and rallies to be sold. The big question is where are the large stops? Traders look for tomorrows’ data to push the Greenback in both directions so expect some whipsaw as the majors look for near-term direction.


Resistance 3: 1.5580
Resistance 2: 1.5550/60
Resistance 1: 1.5520
Latest New York: 1.5480
Support 1: 1.5350
Support 2: 1.5300/10
Support 3: 1.5280

Another strong buy signal this morning suggests the rate will bottom; expect higher action all week as late shorts get squeezed. Today’s rally likely to encounter selling pressure up to the 1.5550 and 1.5580 areas; looking to ADD to open longs if you took some on Friday—if not; looking to open a long on any weakness. Rate finds support as more rumors of Swiss private bank bids at current levels; should rate put in a long tail today a buy might be on the table for Tuesday. Stops and bids noted at the 1.5420 area in size; more said to be resting at the 1.5500. Overhead resistance appears firm at 1.5550 now that the 1.5340 area of option defense fell.

Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

4:00am EUR Italian Trade Balance
5:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment
5:00am EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment
5:00am EUR Trade Balance


Resistance 3: 1.0580
Resistance 2: 1.0550/60
Resistance 1: 1.0520
Latest New York: 1.0443
Support 1: 1.0400
Support 2: 1.0380
Support 3: 1.0320/30

Rate likely to draw additional selling pressure on a drop back under the 100 bar MA today; look for sell signals the past three sessions to hold. Look for a short early this week; aggressive traders who sold USD/CHF on the close Friday can look to add soon. Overhead resistance at the 1.0600 handle but rate may be getting boost from other USD strength in other pairs. Rate continues to rotate up to and fail at the 100 bar MA area; the 1.0480 area looks to be poised to offer resistance again today but a sell off to end the day is needed. Buyers appear to be technical traders and expect some momentum accounts on the bid soon. No doubt some bids are profit-taking from the shorts but that won’t last in my view. Any rally likely to attract selling again so be ready for a short next week. In my view, the rate needs to be sold on any strength.

Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

3:15am CHF Industrial Production q/q

Analysis Provided by: written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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